@de6a1
Rachel Hulsebosch
Narcissists don’t learn from their mistakes because they don’t think they make anyThis paper explores the relationship of narcissism, prediction accuracy, and should counterfactual thinking on hindsight bias. The authors propose the following model for the relationship between these four factors: Four separate experiments, all within the context of managerial hiring decisions, are proposed to further explore the relationships diagrammed above: The first study is designed to test the proposed model The second study replicates study one, but with a sample of working adults The third study utilizes a population of hiring managers to specifically test how 'should counterfactual thinking' is related to hindsight bias The fourth study shows that should counterfactual thinking can be induced, if it does not occur naturally Hypotheses Hypothesis 1 - The relationship between narcissism and hindsight biases is modulated by prediction accuracy. Narcissism results in more hindsight bias when predictions are accurate, and less when predictions are not accurate. Hypothesis 2 - Narcissism is negatively correlated to 'should counterfactual thinking'. Hypothesis 3 - The relationship between should counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is modulated by prediction accuracy. Should counterfactual thinking results in less hindsight bias when predictions are accurate, and more when predictions are not accurate. Hypothesis 4 - Narcissism has an indirect effect on hindsight bias Methods Study 1 consisted of an online survey measuring the big 5 personality traits followed by an in-person experimental session. During the experimental session, participants received a description of a realistic personnel selection case within a rug retail chain. They were given information about two potential candidates and were asked to make a hiring decision. After making a selection, they were informed that both potential candidates were hired, and then received information about their job performances. After this, the study participants underwent tests for should counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias. Study 2 was similar to study 1, but the participants were working adults. In addition after the task, their perceived learned was assessed. Study 3 was similar to study 1, but consisted of spanish-speaking participants who were responsible for hiring decisions within their organizations and did not test for narcissism. Study 4 was similar to study 1, but with the addition of a priming task aimed at manipulating SCT Results Narcissists, because of their heightened self-enhancement and self-protection motives, are prone to both stronger and weaker hindsight bias, depending on whether hindsight flatters them or implicates failure or blame.
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